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Stuckasfook · Advanced Member Joined: 18 Jan 2009 Posts: 544

I'm so convinced that everything that I expect to understand is my static and fluid knowledge! Awesome!

It's a tough poll, but I know you guys will give great answers.

RadicalDreamer · Advanced Member Joined: 03 Mar 2007 Posts: 4049

I think it is reality and attempts at interpretation of reality. I'm guessing this is a religious question. Laughing

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PlayPortal · Member Joined: 02 Feb 2009 Posts: 28

Thrusthamster · Posted: Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:44 pm Post subject:

Banana hammock!
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Annabel_Lee · Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 4:01 am Post subject:

42.
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Stuckasfook · Advanced Member Joined: 18 Jan 2009 Posts: 544

You guys, this is really serious to me. Please answer honestly.

lordofthefood1 · Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 8:16 am Post subject:

If the game show host takes away one of the wrong doors, you should always switch your answer.
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Stuckasfook · Advanced Member Joined: 18 Jan 2009 Posts: 544

Why is that? Some kind of faulty logic masquerading in math?

Annabel_Lee · Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 1:05 pm Post subject:

Alrighty, one more attempt.

6x7 or 7x6, the choice is entirely yours.
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"There's man all over for you, blaming on his boots the faults of his feet" -Samuel Beckett

Zephr · Posted: Tue Feb 03, 2009 7:50 pm Post subject:

Stuckasfook · Advanced Member Joined: 18 Jan 2009 Posts: 544

lol, sorry but i have to point out for shits and giggles

Zephr · Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 3:50 am Post subject:

Okay sorry. It involves knowing what likely means, and you have to know that two is twice as much as one. Really advanced mathy stuff, I know. I bet you can handle it though.

Really, you're not understanding what I said though. There are three doors. You pick one. You have a one in three chance of picking the right door, and a two in three chance of picking a wrong one. When they eliminate a door it's not a new situation, they've given you more information on the first situation. If you picked one of the wrong ones they'll eliminate the other, and then if you switch you get the right one.

Now you have to know what chance means too. I'm terribly mathy, aren't I?
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lordofthefood1 · Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:12 am Post subject:

1. pick Car, a goat is shown
2. pick Goat A, Goat B shown
3. pick Goat B, Goat A shown

66% of the time, a goat was chosen
100% of the time, a goat is shown

It isn't absolute probability, you always have a 50/50 chance of getting the car if you start with one door already shown
it is conditional probability

the Monty Hall isn't part of the Gambler's Fallacy, such as flipping coins.
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Behold the world in other people, life is clarity.

Zephr · Posted: Wed Feb 04, 2009 4:35 am Post subject:

Actually, I think I came up with a better analogy.

Take three playing cards. One ace and two jokers. Have a friend put them face down on a table, so that you don't know which is which. Pick one. Don't look at it though, that's cheating. You have a one in three chance of having the ace.

Now have your friend pick up the other two cards. Your friend now has a two in three chance of having the ace.

Now have your friend discard a joker. There are two cards left, one ace and one joker, but your friend is more likely to have the ace.

The doors work the same way.
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Stuckasfook · Advanced Member Joined: 18 Jan 2009 Posts: 544